Introduction
Those who watch top level golf regularly will notice how streaky the form of golfers can be. Personally, I have noticed that players tend to play their best golf for a few weeks in a row before fading back to whatever their baseline performance may be. This pattern has always fascinated me. This week we look at a novel research paper that statistically analysed this phenomena to determine whether momentum in golf actually exists.
Article Title
‘Momentum and Elite Performance’, Seppo E. Iso-Ahola and Charles O. Dotson. Journal of Nature and Science (JNSCI), 3(3): e325, 2017
Background
A new theory proposes that initial success increases the likelihood of subsequent success by creating three types of momentum effects: frequency, intensity and duration. Using a large data set (11,015 tournament results from four consecutive PGA Tour seasons), the present study is the first to examine these three effects and the relationship between momentum and elite performance. Results showed that performance successes measured with four outcome variables top 30, 20, 10 finishes) not only occurred in sequence, rather than randomly, but that higher-ranked players were able to put together more frequent and more lasting strings of successful performances. They also bounced back faster as indicated by shorter durations of missed cuts, top 30, 20 and 10 performances. The data suggest that better players are in part better because they create more occurrences of momentum and ride them longer. When these momentum influences were removed from regressions analysis, eta squares were reduced to trivial effect sizes, thereby demonstrating the powerful effect of momentum and simultaneously ruling out any meaningful role for randomness.
Conclusion
As a whole, the results support the theory and suggest that momentum is a force that explains elite performance and the way in which better players consistently achieve better results than lower-ranked competitors. Although the analyses were based on overt indicators of behavioral momentum, it is noted that the causes and effects of momentum are psychological. Momentum affects and is affected by conscious and nonconscious cognitions and thoughts.
However, from the practitioner and indeed researcher standpoint, we are still left to push to discover more of the building blocks that will allow the golfer to be in a position to create this momentum and fight their way to the top of competitive golf.